[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251512
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi and
Alabama...parts of southern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251512Z - 251745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may
consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado
threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been
elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of
the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central
AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired
rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface
based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures
warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing
effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a
tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2
along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger
instability develops into the warm advection zone.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34558543 33158671 32708716 32228802 32168845 32328874
            32788873 33558850 34138830 34958767 35408680 35488638
            35318581 35118545 34828537 34558543
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet