[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021934
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Areas affected...Much of MS...Western AL...Southwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021934Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
afternoon across portions of MS, AL, and southwest TN. A few of
these storms may become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts
and/or isolated hail.

DISCUSSION...Broad low-level confluence is contributing to banded
multicellular storm development across much of MS and into southwest
TN. Thus far, updrafts have been rather transient with relatively
short duration. However, the air mass continues to further
destabilize amid strong heating and only partly cloudy skies. Recent
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg from most of MS, with
around 1500 J/kg reaching across much of western TN.  Instability
drops off quickly with eastern extent, with only around 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE across central AL. Even so, persistent low-level confluence
is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm coverage, and
vertical shear is strong enough to support a few more organized
updrafts. Additionally, greater storm coverage increases the
likelihood of storm mergers and resulting brief updraft
intensification. Primary threat with any stronger storms is damaging
wind gusts, although isolated hail is also possible.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34938940 35348839 34798691 31728832 31989104 34188999
            34938940
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