[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010245
TNZ000-KYZ000-010415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...Far South-central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

Valid 010245Z - 010415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue across
parts of WW 15 over then next hour or so. Wind damage and hail will
be the primary threats. These threats are expected to become
marginal and the weather watch will be allowed to expire at 04Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a convective cluster
located from middle Tennessee extending northeastward into far
south-central Kentucky. The storms are located along a corridor of
weak instability where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 250 to
500 J/kg range. Despite the weak instability, the Tri Cities WSR-88D
VWP has 0-6 km shear in the 65 to 70 kt range. This suggests that an
isolated severe threat will continue for another hour or two, before
the instability becomes too weak to support cell organization.
Because the threat should become marginal late this evening, the
weather watch will be allowed to expire at 04Z.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35318594 35338602 35408619 35368628 35368640 35368654
            35468658 35688663 35768666 36018658 36198658 36398640
            36418635 36578625 36628616 36618608 36668602 36838594
            36898567 36868561 36968544 36968532 36888520 36848507
            36848504 36808498 36648502 36628494 36618481 36568468
            36418469 36358474 36288484 36188485 36108478 35968471
            35858470 35778483 35728502 35768516 35698526 35548542
            35528555 35448555 35358557 35328570 35258573 35318599
            35378603 35388621 35318594
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