[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010331
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-MOZ000-010600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Areas affected...parts of western and Middle Tennessee into Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010331Z - 010600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms, perhaps severe, are possible from central
Kentucky into northern Tennessee, with more widespread storms likely
after 06Z along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Damaging gusts or a
tornado will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased from northern into
central KY, extending southwestward into parts of TN. Although
surface temperatures are cool, MLCIN is not particularly strong. In
addition, 0-3km CAPE of 100-150 J/kg is currently analyzed across KY
and TN, with relatively cool 700 mb temperatures.

Deep-layer shear is very strong, at around 70 kt, with effective SRH
of 250-300 m2/s2. Lift is currently subtle from warm advection. It
is unclear weather the small cells now over KY and TN will mature
into supercells, but conditionally, lift and perhaps total MLCAPE
are the limiting factors.

A higher-confidence increase in storms is expected after 06Z as
large-scale lift increases, with most CAMs depicting a corridor of
storms near the KY/TN border. While this line would be oriented
parallel to the deep-layer shear, SRH could still favor a brief
tornado, in addition to damaging wind threat should bows form.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35998521 35778604 35848660 36138760 36068825 35988922
            36258949 36578937 36898833 37198760 37838649 38418558
            38598447 38328379 37858360 37028348 36608362 36298425
            35998521
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