[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110915
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-111045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...northern and central MS into northwest AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 558...

Valid 110915Z - 111045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 558 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts is
increasing across portions of northern/central MS into northwest AL
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase in organization and
intensity across portions of northern MS early this morning ahead of
the main band of convection stretching from Middle TN to northern
LA. This convection remains more discrete in a warm sector
characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear 50+
kt and STP values around 2-4. Recent data from the KGWX VWP also
depicts an enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodograph, with very
strong SRH present. As such, the threat for a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts is increasing across the MCD area. While
portions of northern MS is within WW 558, this watch expires at 11z
and a new watch will likely need to be issued, and include portions
of central MS into northwest AL.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34079032 34718946 34978895 35058840 35038793 34948761
            34828746 34618748 34188770 33588833 33348886 33048981
            32979032 33019078 33229096 33449091 34079032
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