[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110800
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of northern Louisiana into eastern
Arkansas...northern Mississippi...western and middle Tennessee...and
northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 558...

Valid 110800Z - 110930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 558 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 558, with
all severe hazards remaining a concern. A downstream Tornado Watch
issuance may be needed across portions of northern Alabama into
Middle Tennessee in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An expansive line of storms/QLCS is progressing across
Tornado Watch 558, where around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present amid a
moist low-level environment with minimal MLCINH. Given predominantly
linear storm modes oriented nearly parallel to the effective
bulk-shear vector, damaging wind gusts are expected to be the main
threat with the stronger storms. Nonetheless, JAN, GWX and HTX VWPs
around 0730Z show long, modestly curved hodographs contributing to
250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, so some tornado threat still exists with
the more intense circulations embedded in the QLCS. North-south
oriented line segments that are aligned more orthogonal to the
deep-layer shear vector will have the highest tornado potential. As
low-level shear and deep-layer ascent increase across northern
Alabama into Middle Tennessee, a downstream Tornado Watch may be
needed to address the eastward-expanding severe threat.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
SHV...

LAT...LON   32969071 32409233 32289357 32459387 33019344 33819221
            34669098 35298941 36348805 36608653 36638532 36508501
            35928495 35348548 34818602 34388664 34048786 33578881
            33119049 32969071
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