[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211700
KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-211900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Areas affected...Ohio Valley into the Appalachians

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211700Z - 211900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An MCV is moving northeast across the Ohio Valley with a
destabilizing airmass downstream of it. Isolated strong to damaging
wind gusts are possible near the MCV and the storms developing to
its southeast. A watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is rotating out of the
Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A MCV has persisted
overnight just ahead of the vort max associated with the shortwave
trough. With ample insolation to the northeast-southeast of the MCV,
a building Cu field is evident via satellite imagery with initial
thunderstorm development extending southeast from the MCV near
Louisville. Shear is relatively weak across the region, but falling
mid-level heights/temperatures and a moistening vertical profile
will support thunderstorm development. As instability/buoyancy
increase and surface temperatures rise, strong to potentially severe
storms may develop with damaging wind gusts possible. Given the weak
shear, outflow dominant multicellular convection is expected across
the region, especially as forcing for ascent overspreads and
convective temperatures are breached.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...

LAT...LON   35858377 35678487 35908506 36628503 37368502 37938542
            38248627 38398642 38518644 39048646 39538629 39828605
            40008540 39988454 39678380 39148324 38558308 37788300
            37068300 35858377
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