[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111528
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-111700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Areas affected...Northern AL...Middle/eastern TN...Northwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 12...

Valid 111528Z - 111700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 12 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two
continues across WW 12. Local watch extension will likely be needed
across middle TN, and downstream watch issuance is likely by 18Z
into northeast AL/northwest GA/eastern TN.

DISCUSSION...Extensive QLCS is ongoing across middle TN into
northern AL at 1530Z. Over the last hour, the eastward progression
of the QLCS has slowed across northern AL, while some northeastward
push is still noted across middle TN. Instability downstream of this
system is quite meager, but sufficient to allow maintenance or only
a slow weakening of the QLCS in the short term. Very strong
low-level flow/shear (70-80 kt of flow at around 1 km AGL) will
continue to support the potential for damaging wind and perhaps a
brief tornado as the northern portion of the QLCS spreads
northeastward across middle TN. A local extension of WW 12 may be
necessary across TN to cover this threat in the short term, with
downstream watch issuance likely into eastern TN by 18Z.

Further south across northern AL, the recent lack of eastward
progression of the QLCS may allow for somewhat greater
destabilization downstream before the system begins to surge
eastward again by late morning/early afternoon. This could result in
a somewhat greater wind/tornado risk later today compared to areas
further north. Downstream watch issuance into northeast AL/northwest
GA will become increasingly likely by 18Z.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34008809 34588771 35738698 36498668 36558563 36548481
            36158459 35528467 35018503 34678531 34288591 34018626
            33728663 33618739 33608800 34008809
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