[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262228
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Areas affected...Much of central and southern Kentucky...far
northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

Valid 262228Z - 270030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
continues.

SUMMARY...Mature storms continue across southern portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0252. Storms may persist outside of the watch
bounds, but will move into a weakly buoyant/sheared atmosphere,
limiting the severe threat. A downstream WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters, with occasional small bowing
segments, have been observed across central Kentucky in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0252. These storms have organized and sustained
themselves in a weakly buoyant (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), but modestly
sheared (around 40 knots effective bulk shear) environment. As such,
a short term damaging wind/marginally severe hail threat is expected
to persist across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0252 in the near term.
Organized convection may also propagate southeastward, out of the
watch bounds.

Buoyancy and deep-layer shear both decrease south of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0252, near the Kentucky/Tennessee border,
suggesting that the severe threat with storms that move out of the
watch will likely be of short duration. As such, the issuance of
another Severe Thunderstorm Watch seems unlikely at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36688786 37008742 37818612 37828365 37478197 36948215
            36428384 36458657 36688786
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