[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041441
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...parts of eastern Tennessee...northern Georgia...and
western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041441Z - 041615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty/locally
damaging winds -- exists over portions of the southern Appalachians,
though WW is not anticipated in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a weak remnant convective
circulation moving northeast across middle Tennessee, with a leading
band of organized storms near the Tennessee/Georgia border.  The
storms are moving through an environment characterized by rather
weak lapse rates aloft/modest instability (at or below 500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE), and moderate deep-layer flow (low- to mid-level
flow 20 to 30 kt from the west-southwest).

Given limitations of both the kinematic and thermodynamic
environment, severe risk should remain limited.  However, given the
linearly organized/weakly bowing nature of the convective band, and
enhanced forward motion (east-northeast at around 30 kt), gusty
winds, and some sporadic tree/limb damage appears possible.

While WW is not anticipated in the short term, downstream/diurnal
destabilization over the next several hours may support an increase
in storm intensity, and corresponding potential need for WW
issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...

LAT...LON   34708531 35598563 36138350 36138260 35838251 35118300
            34378374 33828477 33588538 34708531
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet