[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022337
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...the Bootheel of Missouri...southwest
Kentucky...Northwest Tennessee...and far northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...122...

Valid 022337Z - 030100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121, 122 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues within tornado watch
121 and 122. Tornado watch 121 will likely be allowed to expire at
00Z as the tornado threat has mostly shifted into tornado watch 122.

DISCUSSION...Rotating storms continue on the leading edge of a MCV
now located in far northeast Arkansas. This MCV is expected to
continue to move east northeastward along a stationary front which
is currently located near the intersection of AR/TN, and MO and
continues east-northeast to slightly north of Nashville, TN. A
reservoir of higher theta-e air resides along this boundary with
dewpoints in the 68F to 70F range. This will continue to provide
adequate low-level buoyancy for strong updrafts through the evening
even as the boundary layer begins to cool. Higher low-level
vorticity along this surface front and added low-level shear due to
the MCV will continue to support the potential for rotating updrafts
and brief tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36399029 36679021 36958964 37128869 36978777 36588801
            36128846 35738938 35629003 36099035 36399029
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