[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 310034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310033
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...central MS...northwest AL...middle TN and extreme
south-central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 310033Z - 310200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue weakening trend
from south-central KY into middle TN this evening. A marginal severe
threat may persist further south into central/northeast MS and
northwest AL for a couple more hours, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...After a brief uptick in convection across south-central
KY into middle TN over the last hour or two, convection has trended
toward weakening and a more disorganized state recently. Based on
the 00z RAOB from BNA, steep midlevel lapse rates are still present,
however, instability is meager with less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE
indicated. Effective shear around 54 kt and a fairly large, curved
low level hodograph gives some clues into the brief organization in
convection earlier. But, with loss of daytime heating and
increasingly poorer quality airmass with eastward extent, severe
threat is expected to quickly diminish across KY/TN.

Further south, convection has shown some upward trends in intensity
as cells track east/northeast into central and northeast MS.
Boundary layer moisture in better further south, with dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s F resulting in MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per JAN
00z RAOB. A weak capping inversion near 700mb was still evident in
this observation and is likely precluding more robust
intensification. Convection therefore will likely continue to
struggle in weaker forcing with southward extent. A marginal threat
of a strong wind gust or hail may persist for a couple of hours
across central/northeast MS into northwest AL as the cold front
continues to push eastward this evening.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32158914 32139016 32329063 32649053 33368980 34368876
            35798702 36308640 36968566 36948537 36798522 36338526
            35548579 34398659 33778712 33108770 32598828 32288882
            32158914
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet