[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221855
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Areas affected...portions of western Kentucky...far southeast
Missouri...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221855Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in intensity this afternoon
with a risk primarily for damaging winds.  A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is possible prior to 3 pm CDT/20Z.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived convective complex continues to move
southeast at 30 kts across southeast MO/western KY at 19Z, with a
well-established cold pool and substantial downstream
heating/destabilization.  Despite rather weak deep-layer shear,
current expectations are for the leading edge convection to
intensify over the next couple of hours with an increasing risk for
damaging winds given strong to extreme instability and DCAPE in
excess of 1000 J/kg.

Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is possible prior to 20Z/3 pm CDT.

..Bunting/Hart.. 06/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36429071 36799053 36958938 37218878 37308836 37138805
            36628777 36048767 35398756 34818830 34468879 34868992
            35989035 36429071
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