[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 200258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200258
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-200400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...central and northern MS...parts of western
TN...northwest and north-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 200258Z - 200400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A bow echo over southeastern AR is rapidly moving east at
55kt and will exit severe thunderstorm watch 405 around 11pm CDT.  A
new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed for MS, parts of
western TN, and into northwest and north-central portions of AL.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a bow echo over southeastern AR and
a cluster of severe thunderstorms over central AR.  The central AR
cluster yielded gusts of 58kt at KLRF and 56kt at KLIT in the Little
Rock metro.  Strong west-southwesterly flow increasing with height
will favor storm organization when combined with a moist boundary
layer (surface dewpoints in the lower 70s) and moderate buoyancy.
Expecting a continued risk for severe gusts (60-75kt) with the bow
echo and severe gusts potentially affecting the greater Memphis area
around 1am CDT.  The highest potential and greatest concentration of
severe gusts will likely focus with the mature bow echo as it
rapidly moves into north-central MS during the late evening/early
overnight period.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33219035 35419050 35458801 34798678 33938656 32978695
            32658776 32669061 33219035

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