[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191735
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Missouri...northeast
Arkansas...western Tennessee and Kentucky...and adjacent portions of
southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191735Z - 191930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm intensity and
organization appears possible through 3-5 PM CDT.  This may be
accompanied by an increase in severe weather potential which could
require a watch within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing increase in thunderstorm development appears
to be associated with a secondary band of large-scale ascent
pivoting from the Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley, within
the leading edge of larger-scale low-amplitude mid/upper troughing.
As this is occurring, inhibition for seasonably moist boundary layer
parcels continues to weaken in response to insolation, with
mixed-layer CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg.  At the same time, westerly
deep-layer ambient mean fields and vertical shear are also beginning
to increase, as a 40-50 kt 500 mb speed maximum gradually propagates
eastward from the south central Plains.

Into mid to late afternoon, the environment across western into
central (middle) Kentucky and Tennessee, and surrounding portions of
the lower Ohio Valley, may become conducive to increasingly
organized convection.  It is possible that this may include a few
supercell structures, then perhaps one or two upscale growing
clusters of storms accompanied primarily by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36998965 38088896 38008552 37228519 35258679 34928856
            35969087 36998965
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