[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161846
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-161945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Areas affected...Lower/Middle Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161846Z - 161945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in
coverage/intensity over the area this afternoon and will pose a risk
for damaging winds and isolated large hail. A WW will likely be
needed over parts of this area in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite/lightning data indicate
thunderstorms are starting to increase in coverage/intensity over
southern Indiana and vicinity, where continued heating of a very
moist low-level air mass (e.g., surface dew points at or above 70F)
has allowed moderate to strong instability to develop (with
2000-3000 J/kg per mesoanalysis). Much of the area also resides on
the southern periphery of a belt of stronger mid-level westerlies,
which are helping to contribute to around 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear -- greatest along and north of the Ohio River.

The combination of strong instability and at least modest effective
bulk shear should allow thunderstorms to organize into several
mulitcell clusters and linear segments with an attendant risk of
damaging winds. A few transient supercell structures are also
possible, with at least an isolated large hail and non-zero tornado
risk -- owing to the modestly favorable effective bulk shear.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed over parts of this
area in the next hour or so.

..Elliott/Guyer.. 06/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON   37598989 39208689 39578511 39488413 38818327 38268335
            37288377 37178596 36908723 36248889 36779005 37598989
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