[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 170005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170005
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama...Southeast Tennessee...and
northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 170005Z - 170100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
downstream watch in southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia.

DISCUSSION...A bowing segment with several embedded circulations is
currently moving along the Alabama/Tennessee border. The
intensity/organization of this line has lessened with eastward
extent as expected due to lessening instability. Some marginal
damaging wind/tornado threat has persisted where dewpoints are in
the upper 50s, but farther north where dewpoints are in the mid-50s,
storm intensity is much weaker. Currently, the reservoir of upper
50s dewpoints is within tornado watch 702 with lower DEWPOINTS east
and north of the ongoing watch. There is little evidence the warm
sector will expand much east of the ongoing watch with
south-southeasterly surface flow and the better moisture southwest
of this region. Therefore, expect storm intensity will weaken east
of the current watch and do not anticipate a downstream watch will
be needed at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 12/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35508629 35648605 35548560 35388492 35138455 34528455
            34128487 33918539 33938602 34088671 35048658 35508629
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