[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 162111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162110
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Northeast/East-Central MS...Northwest/West-Central
AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 701...

Valid 162110Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701 continues.

SUMMARY...A strong convective line capable of damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes will continue across northeast/east-central MS into
northwest/west-central AL over the next few hours. A downstream
watch will likely be needed across northwest/west-central AL within
the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Convective line moving through northern MS has recently
shown increased forward motion to around 45 kt. At this speed, this
portion of the line will likely reach the MS/AL border around 2200Z.
Instability is expected to be modest, tempered primarily by cooler
surface temperatures (i.e. low 70s) and warm mid-level temperatures.
That being said, a remnant of the EML will still exist and
deep-layer shear is expected to be very strong (60+ kt from 0-6 km).
Additionally, the strongest part of the low-level jet will be
focused across the region from west-central MS into middle TN. The
conditions suggest the ongoing line should persist as it moves
across northeast/east-central MS and into northwest/west-central AL.
Damaging wind gusts are likely with tornadoes embedded within the
line also possible. A Watch will likely be needed across portions of
northwest/west-central AL within the next hour or two.

..Mosier/Grams.. 12/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34348938 35048836 34938700 33508688 32118828 32798972
            34348938
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