[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072236
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far east Mississippi...northern
Alabama...far northwest Georgia...far southeast Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072236Z - 080030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Discrete storms may continue for a few more hours, posing
mainly a severe hail risk, though a few damaging wind gusts can not
be ruled out. A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Relatively discrete convection, occasionally exhibiting
brief, transient supercell structures, continue to initiate/sustain
themselves along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone extending from
central Mississippi, to far southeast Tennessee. Instability is
gradually waning across the warm sector, with MLCAPE decreasing to
1000-1500 J/kg in the last few hours. Nonetheless, relatively steep
low-level lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE exceeding 100 J/kg have
supported vigorous updraft development despite a weak shear
environment being in place, with 1.5 inch diameter hail reported in
Fayette County, AL an hour ago.

Before the onset of nocturnal stabilization, a few more instances of
severe hail are possible, with a severe gust or two possible with
the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. Given the sparse nature of the
severe hail/wind threat, no WW issuances are expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33238920 34308789 35248582 35528431 35178409 33708536
            33108669 32918808 33238920
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