[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242054
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Central Tennessee and Northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242054Z - 242300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger/organized storms could develop over middle
Tennessee and northern Alabama through this evening. Overall, the
severe threat will remain isolated if it materializes.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough is moving over the Southeast and
Ohio River Valley helping to spread ascent over the region. Within
the warm sector including across Mississippi, Alabama, and most of
Tennessee, a moist/unstable airmass is present and supportive of
developing convection. MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg over middle
Tennessee/northern Alabama with effective SRH of 75-150 and bulk
shear of 25-30 knots per mesoanalysis/RAP soundings indicate the
potential for a few weakly rotating storms. BNA radar has depicted a
few storms with broad/weak rotation in the last hour across portions
of middle Tennessee. A few stronger/organized storms are possible,
but the overall severe threat remains marginal at best, thus a watch
issuance is not expected.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 09/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35388699 35888682 36298650 36598615 36718558 36688530
            36548514 36288515 35918529 35508544 35128564 34858592
            34658612 34558634 34518659 34558689 34638716 34748719
            35208705 35388699
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