[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060252
KYZ000-TNZ000-060345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...south-central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 060252Z - 060345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe risk will probably develop northward into
south-central KY coincident with the advancing warm front.  Isolated
damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat but a brief/weak
mesovortex capable of damage is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature southwest-northeast
oriented squall line from west-central KY southwestward into western
TN.  Surface analysis places a warm front draped west-east and
bisecting the squall line near the KY/TN border east and then arcing
southward to near the TN/AL/GA border, where a stable low-level
airmass has yet to erode east of the Cumberland Plateau.

The KOHX VAD shows an intense low-level wind profile with 50+ kt at
1km AGL.  A large clockwise-curved hodograph is present but
surface-based buoyancy is meager over northern middle TN per the 00Z
Nashville sounding.  As this airmass gradually moves northward and
south-central KY becomes weakly unstable (100-200 J/kg SBCAPE), the
potential for isolated damaging gusts associated with bowing
segments will increase via horizontal momentum transport.  Any risk
for a tornado will remain very modest and likely of the
mesovortex-process variety---limited in potential intensity/duration
to weak/short-lived EF0-lower EF1 magnitudes.

..Smith/Edwards.. 11/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36908710 37358612 37818464 37418448 36728493 36638694
            36908710
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