[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291838
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-292015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Middle and eastern Tennessee...Northwest
Georgia...far northeast Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291838Z - 292015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk exists for a brief tornado or two with
developing cells associated with Subtropical Depression Alberto. A
WW is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The remnants of Subtropical Depression Alberto are
currently drifting slowly northward, with the right front quadrant
experiencing an uptick in insolation. Surface heating, combined with
decent low-level shear indicate that a brief tornado or two may be
possible with developing cells to the northeast of the subtropical
low, across the discussion area. WSR-88D VAD wind profilers indicate
0-1km SRH values around 150-200 m2/s2, coinciding with areas of
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the Tennessee/Alabama border. No
formidable changes in low-level shear are anticipated in the short
term, so the risk of a brief tornado is expected to persist through
the afternoon.

Given marginal buoyancy present across the area, the tornado threat
is expected to be isolated at best. A WW issuance does not appear
warranted at this time.

..Squitieri/Cook/Hart.. 05/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...

LAT...LON   35828728 36178760 36758750 37038683 36968584 36678487
            36218433 35708398 35068370 34608364 33918379 33608441
            33698495 34078536 34458574 34748588 35068610 35348639
            35538679 35668713 35828728
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