[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192314
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...West Tennessee...western Kentucky...far southern
Illinois...far southeastern Missouri...and far northeastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

Valid 192314Z - 200015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the discussion area,
and some propagation of convection outside of WW 107 is possible
near the Memphis, TN area and across western Kentucky.  Local
spatial extensions of 107 may be warranted.

DISCUSSION...A couple of linear convective complexes have evolved
across the discussion area over the past hour or so - one just north
of the Memphis, TN area and another extending from far southern
Illinois into western Kentucky near Paducah, KY.  An additional
cluster of storms was located very near the Paris, TN area as well.
These storms remain outflow dominant given weak deep shear profiles,
and it is not out of the question for an isolated damaging wind
threat to evolve along the leading edges of these complexes as they
continue to propagate slowly across the discussion area.
Furthermore, an isolated severe threat will exist near a stalled
outflow boundary in northeastern Arkansas over the next hour of so
given the moderately to strongly unstable airmass in place across
that area.  This threat should persist through the scheduled
expiration time of the watch (01Z), although storms may begin to
exhibit a weakening trend before that time given the presence of
rain-cooled air across far southeastern portions of the WW from a
previous MCS.

..Cook.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37238956 37528927 37508890 37098835 36498804 35988810
            35418840 35228891 35108954 34998987 35039003 35289033
            35679065 36139109 36379115 36499090 36479035 36588990
            36798965 37238956
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