[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191618
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...Northeast MS and Northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191618Z - 191745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail may accompany small thunderstorm cluster as it
tracks across northeast MS into northwest AL over the next few
hours. At this time do not anticipate issuing a short-term severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of convection has tracked from
southwest AR into northeast MS. Over the last hour or so it appears
updraft strength with this activity has intensified along nose of
low-level warm/moist advection. Hail algorithm supports this with
MRMS data exhibiting sizes possibly in excess of 1.5". Given the
overall air mass destabilization expected into northern AL over the
next few hours it appears this activity could maintain its intensity
along with primarily a hail threat.

More intense supercells are expected to develop along the
western/southern flank of this early-day convection. At that time
more significant severe threat, including the possibility for
tornadoes, should evolve.

..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35018898 35028759 34368756 34468912 35018898
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