[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 172306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172306
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern KY/TN...far southern
WV...southwestern VA...and far western NC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10...

Valid 172306Z - 180100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may
continue for the next several hours across remaining valid portions
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10.

DISCUSSION...Fast mid-level westerly flow of 50-70+ kt is present
across eastern KY/TN and vicinity in associated with a shortwave
trough over the OH Valley. Thunderstorms have formed generally along
and south of a front oriented generally west-to-east across this
region over the past several hours. The strong mid-level flow is
promoting effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt, which is more than
sufficient to organize updrafts. But, the very limited low-level
moisture present across this region has generally tempered overall
thunderstorm strength/severity thus far. Still, marginally severe
hail and strong to perhaps locally damaging winds will remain
possible across valid portions of WW 10 for the next several hours.
The best, albeit isolated, severe potential may exist across
southern portions of the WW (eastern TN) where surface dewpoints are
slightly higher than farther north. The loss of daytime heating by
late this evening will further reduce the already limited
instability, and interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern
TN/southwestern VA/far western NC will likely result in weakening of
convection with eastward extent.

..Gleason.. 03/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...

LAT...LON   36688493 37858314 37428134 36598141 35798224 35598406
            35838487 36688493
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