[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171925
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Areas affected...Central and Southeast KY...Northeast TN...Extreme
Southwest VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171925Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over central
KY this afternoon, spreading/developing east-southeastward into
adjacent parts of TN and VA.  Large hail will be possible in the
stronger cells.  A watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops show a corridor of increasing
cumulus development over north-central KY.  This is in vicinity of a
weak surface low that will track southeastward across the discussion
area during the afternoon and early evening.  Strong heating is
occurring in the warm sector of the low, resulting in substantial
heating and destabilization.  Meanwhile, low-level moisture is
slowly returning to this area with dewpoints now in the 50s.

Present indications are that storms will initiate near the surface
low in the next 1-2 hours and spread southeastward across parts of
southeast KY and into northeast TN and western VA.  Sufficient CAPE
and favorable effective shear/mid-level lapse rates will promote
rotating cells capable of large hail.  Locally damaging winds may
also occur if storms can congeal and develop upscale several hours
from now.

..Hart/Guyer.. 03/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37988508 37748271 37038148 36108179 35868329 36528545
            37158635 37698608 37988508
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