[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270041
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...Southeast MO...extreme southern IL...western
KY...northeast AR...and western TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...226...

Valid 270041Z - 270245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224, 226
continues.

SUMMARY...A fast-moving line storms will advance through extreme
southeast Missouri at 40-45 kt, producing a severe threat of
damaging winds across the remainder of WW 224 and into the eastern
part of WW 226.

Meanwhile, a small bowing line of storms moving east through western
Kentucky will continue to pose a severe risk for damaging winds
until 8-9 PM CDT (east of WW 226 into WFO LMK area), though spatial
limitations due to a more stable environment with eastward extent
preclude a new watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a well-defined
and long-lived, forward-propagating MCS through southeast MO and
adjacent extreme southern IL, with a bowing line of storms extending
from Jackson County IL to Stoddard and Ripley Counties MO.  This
line was moving to the east/southeast at 40-45 kt into an
environment that remains moderately unstable across the eastern half
of WW 226 (northern and northeast AR into western TN/KY).  Trends
will be monitored with the eastward progression of the bow as it
moves through southwest KY and northwest TN during the next 1-2
hours, and the potential for additional severe thunderstorm watch
downstream across the Tennessee Valley.  However, boundary-layer
stabilization may offset that threat as the bow advances to the
east/southeast.

Meanwhile, although the northern portion of the bowing line was
moving east at 40 kt into southern IL, the environment in the wake
of the western KY bow that moved through that area has been
stabilized per weak low-level lapse rates in objective analysis.
This should limit the severe-weather threat in southern IL.

..Peters/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36738625 36318694 35728752 35018803 35008834 35039035
            35139105 35659156 36219168 36599159 36759090 36939000
            37348954 37828927 38018893 37918815 38018737 37868656
            37728622 37438608 36738625
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