[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242339
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...northwest
Tennessee...southwest Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242339Z - 250145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms are possible along an outflow boundary from
central Arkansas into southwest Kentucky. Severe wind gusts and
isolated hail will be the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out with storms that remain within the enhanced vorticity
near the outflow boundary.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite imagery show an
outflow boundary from this morning's convection draped from central
Arkansas into parts of southwest Kentucky. An MCV is also evident
over southeastern Missouri moving east. A few storms have fired in
northwest Arkansas and have taken on weakly supercellular structure.
Storms have tried to initiate in southwest Kentucky and adjacent
parts of Tennessee, but have struggled to mature. Strong effective
deep-layer shear of 35-50 kts is present across this area. With
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, the strongest storms will be capable of
severe wind gusts and isolated hail. Given, the presence of strong
deep-layer shear and enhanced surface vorticity near the outflow
boundary, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for storms that
can mature and interact with the boundary -- particularly in
southwest Kentucky with the added influence of the MCV per KPAH VAD.
Uncertainty remains with regard to amount of storm coverage. A WW
may be needed if upward convective trends in coverage or intensity
continue.

..Wendt/Grams.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35859192 36629021 37038719 36548663 35788795 35019108
            35269208 35549210 35859192
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