[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232150
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...Southern Illinois...Western
Kentucky...Western into Middle Tennessee...Northwestern
Alabama...Northern Mississippi...and Eastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232150Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing convection across the discussion area
may necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, although
convective coverage is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and objective analyses indicate a continually
destabilizing and weakly inhibited airmass across the discussion
area in the wake of an early morning MCS.  Convection continues to
evolve across southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois and is
likely being enhanced by lift aloft associated with a mid/upper
shortwave trough centered over Iowa.  Instability increases with
southward extent, although forcing for ascent is generally weaker
with southward extent as well.  Shear profiles support storm
organization with any cells or linear segments that can organize,
although generally weak low-level shear should favor
outflow-dominant, hail/wind producing convection through the
evening.

Models generally depict a varied degree of convective coverage and
upscale growth through the evening.  The most likely region for more
widespread coverage appears to exist downstream of current
development from southeastern Missouri into western/middle
Tennessee.  Uncertainties regarding convective coverage preclude WW
issuance at this time, although trends will be monitored.

..Cook/Grams.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   37569108 37889027 38068910 37918814 37188763 35478722
            34298739 33628795 33298906 33449049 33949125 34529107
            35629087 36529108 37179124 37569108
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