[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121826 COR
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Areas affected...Parts of the mid Mississippi...Ohio...and Tennessee
Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121826Z - 122015Z

CORRECTED FOR INCOMPLETE PRODUCT TRANSMISSION

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Loosely organized multicellular convection will continue
to increase in coverage throughout the afternoon. Marginally severe
hail and wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...A surface front was reinforced and pushed south near
the Ohio River from overnight/morning convection with new convective
initiation along this boundary stretching from eastern Kentucky back
to southeastern Missouri. Surface dewpoints are in the low-mid 70s
with temperatures reaching the mid-upper 80s helping destabilize
lower levels across this region. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, but weak
flow aloft and shear indicates continued development of
multicellular, loosely organized clusters across this region through
the evening firing along the boundary and subsequent outflow
boundaries from ongoing convection. Hail and strong wind gusts are
possible within the stronger cells.

..Nauslar/Goss/Grams.. 06/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36999074 37609037 38298927 38348837 38518678 38638413
            38528281 38198239 37528225 37098260 36708295 36318376
            35998457 35868600 35928722 36228864 36429015 36729087
            36999074
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