[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250334
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas affected...Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

Valid 250334Z - 250500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes is
expected to continue with thunderstorms overspreading western into
central Kentucky and Tennessee through 9-11 PM CDT.  A new tornado
watch will probably be needed prior to the 03Z scheduled expiration
of tornado watch 5.

DISCUSSION...While the primary surface low development begins to
take shape across portions of the Upper Midwest, the southern edge
of elongated deepening surface troughing extending to the south is
forecast to shift east of the Mississippi River into central
Kentucky and middle Tennessee between now and 03-05Z.  This is where
large-scale forcing for ascent is maintaining vigorous convective
development, along and just south of a slow moving warm frontal
zone.  In the presence of at least weak conditional instability, and
strong to extreme low-level shear near a 50-70 kt 850 mb speed
maximum, this may continue to support the evolution of low-level
mesocyclones within stronger convection, accompanied by locally
enhanced, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of additional
tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 02/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37438770 38008491 37358448 36618451 35788504 35478611
            35238786 35378952 36358896 37218841 37438770
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet