[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032351
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-040145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Tue Apr 03 2018

Areas affected...Western and  middle Tennessee into northern
Mississippi and northwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 032351Z - 040145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity accompanied primarily by a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts will overspread the region through
the 9-11 PM CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...A broken pre-frontal line of thunderstorms is in the
process of progressing east of the Mississippi River, where the
boundary layer remains drier with dew points generally in the
lower/mid 50s.  With an upstream cold front continuing to surge
through what is left of a plume of higher surface moisture content
near/west of the Mississippi River, little further low-level
moistening seems likely  prior to the passage of the convective line
(aside from from some surface dew point increases with the loss of
daytime heating/mixing).  It is possible, though, that present weak
instability and forcing for ascent may be enough to maintain fairly
vigorous convective development into the 02-04Z time.  As long as
storms maintain some strength, in the presence of 40-50 kt deep
layer mean flow, a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts will
probably continue.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36478859 36638651 36118519 34678663 33548824 33278982
            33799075 35298965 36478859
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