[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 182244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182244
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Areas affected...central Kentucky...far southeast Indiana...and
southwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...

Valid 182244Z - 182345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to move east through the early
evening. Isolated wind damage will be possible with some of these
storms. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #516 has been extended in time to
01Z.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue along an eastward moving cold
front. Ahead of the front, a narrow tongue of weak buoyancy remains.
Here, most-unstable CAPE values generally less than 250 J/kg will
support thunderstorms for a few more hours; at least until the cold
front out runs the last of the instability. Despite the weak
buoyancy, strong low-level wind fields will allow for at least some
downward momentum transport within the line of thunderstorms, giving
risk to the potential for local wind damage. Therefore, after
coordination with local offices, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #516 has
been extended in time until 01Z for primarily southern portions of
the watch. Northern areas should be able to be removed from the
watch prior to new expiration time. After 01Z, thunderstorms should
have moved through the axis of appreciable instability and an
overall weakening/dissipating trend is expected. Additional watches
downstream are not likely.

..Marsh.. 11/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...

LAT...LON   36708703 39928476 40808380 40778350 40438323 40058321
            39358359 37558413 36618509 36708703
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