[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Sat May 27 13:17:57 CDT 2017

ACUS11 KWNS 271817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271816
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MO...southern IL...far
southwestern IN...and western KY/TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271816Z - 271915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing severe potential is quickly increasing, with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Isolated tornadoes
will also be possible. Watch issuance likely soon.

DISCUSSION...A strongly unstable airmass exists across the
discussion area, with strong diurnal heating, ample low-level
moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates all contributing to MLCAPE
of 2000-3500 J/kg per 18Z RAP Mesoanalysis. A belt of enhanced
mid-level westerly winds exists along and generally south of a
stalled front that extends across southern IL/IN, with effective
bulk shear values of 35-50 kt present. Thunderstorms will likely
form along the stalled front, as well as along an outflow boundary
from morning convection across TN. Additional ongoing convection
will likely move into this region from southern/central MO over the
next several hours. Large hail and damaging winds appear likely with
this activity, and watch issuance will be needed soon. An isolated
tornado or two may also occur if convection can remain discrete,
although numerous to widespread damaging winds will likely become
the main threat later this afternoon as one or more damaging line of
thunderstorms moves across this region.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36958697 35698805 35718878 35918982 36529030 38058970
            38528944 38498802 38548675 36958697
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