[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221906
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western KY...western/middle
TN...northern MS...AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221906Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in number and intensity
through late afternoon and continue into the evening with isolated
severe potential. Present indications are that Watch issuance will
be unlikely, though areas from the lower Ohio Valley to the
mid-South will especially be monitored for somewhat relatively
greater severe potential.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary arcs from southern AR northeastward
to the mid-South and intersects a deeper, synoptic, northeastward-
extending, baroclinic zone near a triple point in the vicinity of
the MO Bootheel. The warm-sector air mass is becoming strongly
unstable owing to insolation amidst dewpoints in the 70s. Despite
limited mid-level lapse rates, the favorably moist boundary layer is
supporting ample MLCAPE -- around 2000-3500 J/kg -- which will yield
robust updrafts developing along the modestly convergent
aforementioned boundaries. As initial convective elements merge with
amalgamating cold pools, locally damaging wind gusts may evolve --
particularly across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-South where
effective shear upwards of 25 kt and DCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
exist. Isolated severe hail could also accompany incipient intense
updrafts. However, surface boundaries governing convective
initiation have become largely dislodged to the south of stronger
deep shear accompanying a mid-level speed maximum. Accordingly, the
overall convective organization and severe risk should be limited.

..Cohen/Elliott/Grams.. 08/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35998717 34888826 34068942 33469121 33509380 34329436
            34339311 34579155 35099047 36138980 36878907 37388818
            37508747 36928671 35998717
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