[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270036
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Areas affected...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...

Valid 270036Z - 270200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166
continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for primarily potentially damaging wind gusts
continues at least another couple of hours with the squall line
advancing across northern Mississippi and portions of western
Tennessee.  This may include areas in close proximity to, but east
of watch 166, before activity weakens, but it is not yet certain
that a new watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...As the significant short wave trough approaching the
lower Mississippi Valley takes on an increasing negative tilt,
stronger low-level convergence and mid-level forcing for ascent
likely will become focused across northern Mississippi northward
into the lower Ohio Valley during the next few hours.  This is
forecast to coincide with further strengthening of southerly 850 mb
flow to 50+ kt ahead of the ongoing pre-frontal squall line which is
now advancing east of the Mississippi River.  However, the northward
return of richer boundary layer moisture is becoming increasingly
cut-off from this region, and the maintenance of vigorous boundary
based storm development beyond the next couple of hours is
increasingly unclear.  The segment of the squall line north of
Greenville MS into the vicinity of the MISSISSIPPI/Tennessee state
border seems to provide the greatest risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts through the 01-03z time frame, with at least some
northeastward acceleration possible.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36158881 36488844 36418745 34788792 33908807 33508891
            33628998 34278996 34808962 36158881
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