[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221751
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Areas affected...Central Louisiana northeastward to northwestern
Alabama and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221751Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and hail approaching 1" in diameter
are all possible with storms developing across the region this
afternoon.  A WW is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are continuing to increase
across the discussion area just ahead of a surface boundary
extending from Middle Tennessee, through the Mississippi Delta, and
southwestward into northern Louisiana.  The airmass ahead of this
frontal boundary was weakly capped, with insolation/surface warming
and weak low-level warm advection fostering weak to moderate
instability in an axis from central Louisiana northeastward to
Middle Tennessee.  Stronger instability was common in southwestern
portions of the discussion area (1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE), with
gradually weaker instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) area near Nashville.
Westerly deep shear (around 35 knots) was sufficient for storm
organization, and weak surface convergence combined with ascent
associated with a mid-level low north of the area should foster
gradually increasing convective coverage and intensity with
progression toward peak heating later this afternoon.  Hail and
gusty winds will be the primary threats with this activity.

Given the aforementioned scenario, a WW issuance is being considered
for portions of the region.

..Cook/Weiss.. 04/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31389043 31229118 31219170 31519199 32139195 32759188
            33239151 33579116 35228899 36058734 36158653 35978607
            35548605 34718631 32958818 31389043
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