[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201907
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...far southern
Illinois...western Kentucky...northwestern Tennessee...and far
northeastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201907Z - 202000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms moving eastward through the
region may pose a marginal wind/hail threat through the afternoon.
A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has showing an increase in
coverage an intensity over the past hour or so, likely in response
to insolation/surface warming and an attendant increase in
surface-based instability.  These storms were in an environment
characterized by weak to moderate instability (around 1500 J/kg ML
CAPE) and 40 knots of deep shear, supporting modest storm
organization.  Latest observations and high-resolution guidance
(particularly the HRRR and to a lesser extent, the NAM4) suggest
that these ongoing storms may organize into one or two linear
segments, with perhaps some component of movement just south of
due-east over the course of the afternoon.  Isolated instances of
damaging wind gusts and 1" hail cannot be ruled out with this
activity, although meager low-level shear and unidirectional wind
profiles should mitigate the overall extent of the severe risk in
the area.  Isolated storms ahead of this band may also briefly
produce strong wind gusts.

..Cook/Thompson.. 04/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36449075 37089061 37659003 37878947 37878863 37778791
            37578752 37338728 37008722 36638723 36258736 35938778
            35718829 35568896 35788971 36159037 36449075
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