[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032202
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032202Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may pose a threat for
gusty winds and small hail over the next several hours. However, any
severe threat will remain brief/disorganized, precluding watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and cold 500mb temperatures (around -18
to -20 C based on the 12Z SGF sounding) have promoted the
development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region
this afternoon. While surface dew points are generally in the 50s,
these cells exist within a thermodynamic environment characterized
by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, mesoanalysis data
suggest modest heating has led to a small corridor of downdraft CAPE
around 600-900 J/kg ahead of these cells. Unidirectional
southwesterly flow (sampled by the KVWX VWP) within this environment
will likely maintain a few small clusters/bowing segments capable of
gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. The overall threat should
gradually diminish through the mid/late evening, as nocturnal
cooling diminishes surface-based buoyancy. No watch issuance is
expected.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   38298986 38798924 39288809 39268599 39108551 38678534
            37488579 36728763 36318942 36628996 36948987 37398978
            38298986

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