[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101805
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-102030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...SWRN KY...NRN MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101805Z - 102030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 1745Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS FAR SWRN KY/NWRN TN...WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL FLOW/EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE WEAKER
COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH...SO RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STORM
MODES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GRAMS.. 09/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35469002 35948972 36958870 37108844 36738744 36418694
            36148667 35848665 35468681 35018724 34648796 34368886
            34199004 34689050 35469002

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