[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201728
KYZ000-TNZ000-202000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TN/KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201728Z - 202000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TSTMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW DMGG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AMIDST A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD CANOPIES. NEVERTHELESS...MODEST DIABATIC
SFC-LAYER HEATING -- ENHANCED IN AREAS OF CLOUD-THINNING -- IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 300-800
J/KG AND DIURNAL REDUCTIONS OF MLCINH -- AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT
ANALYZED FROM WRN KY TO THE MID-SOUTH -- A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE FETCH OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS IS OFFERING
AROUND 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW
SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD OCCUR...AND A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GIVEN STRONGER DEEP
ASCENT LAGGING WELL TO THE W OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE BUOYANCY -- ALBEIT
QUITE MODEST -- THE SVR RISK SHOULD BE LIMITED.

..COHEN/CONIGLIO/DARROW.. 10/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   35838819 37668555 38438321 38118267 36908357 35608526
            35118657 35058838 35838819
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