[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301110
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...NORTHWEST GA...EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511

VALID 301110Z - 301245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
PERSISTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WATCH AREA STILL CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THESE CONDITIONS IN TANDEM WITH
GENERALLY MOIST PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND
THE LATEST MESOANAYLSIS DATA SUGGESTS MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT HAS ALSO REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE BMX VAD.
SUBTLE BACKING HAS OCCURRED AT TCL AND EET IN CENTRAL AL AS THE
CONVECTION WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
INCREASED EASTWARD MOTION WITH THE PORTION OF THE LINE NEAR JFX. ALL
THIS TO SAY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN MODULATING STORM
STRENGTH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NORTH...A PAIR OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS
LEADS TO STORM DEMISE.

..MOSIER.. 11/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON   35188648 35908514 36588348 36578233 35508323 34668366
            32938592 31918808 33938841 35188648
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