[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292324
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TN AND NORTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292324Z - 300100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TN INTO NORTHERN AL. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MS INTO
SOUTHWEST TN HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE POOR QUALITY
DEW POINTS /MAINLY IN THE 50S/...RESULTING IN LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY
TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY WEST
TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO NORTHERN AL. AS A LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE AL/TN STATE LINE. GUIDANCE
VARIES ON THIS SCENARIO...AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER QUALITY
MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE IS UNCLEAR. SHOULD THE BETTER WARM SECTOR TO
THE SOUTH SPREAD INTO THIS AREA...ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WILL
PRESENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
LARGE...CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DAMAGING WINDS
ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING
IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 11/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34608566 35218527 35548565 35628637 35588661 35558728
            35268812 34928834 34628840 34198846 34078828 34058766
            34178666 34368596 34608566

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