[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 282325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282324
KYZ000-TNZ000-290200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282324Z - 290200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF WEST KY TO MIDDLE TN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
AND COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NO LIGHTNING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED BY THE OHX/LVX
VAD WIND PROFILES -- E.G....AROUND 65-70 KT AT 1 KM ABOVE GROUND --
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER -- YET SHALLOW -- DOWNDRAFTS. BAND-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
COULD ALSO ENHANCE THIS RISK...AND A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MINIMAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 11/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   35438758 37058704 37538604 37038489 35398546 35118700
            35438758
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