[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110740
TNZ000-KYZ000-110915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...

VALID 110740Z - 110915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165
COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 11Z.

DISCUSSION...ALONG THE STALLED WESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EAST THROUGH NORTH OF NASHVILLE...TOWARD THE
BOWLING GREEN KY AREA.  MRMS MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER STORMS
MAY OCCASIONALLY STILL BE PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...BUT THERE APPEARS
TO BE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND TO PEAK INTENSITIES.  INHIBITION FOR
THE MORE MOIST PARCELS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL JET
/30-40 KT AT 850 MB/ IS WEAKENING AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS.  WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED.

..KERR.. 05/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37168726 36708562 36218517 35738488 35518571 35898661
            36348767 37168726
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