[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 102009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102008
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN KY...NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102008Z - 102115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN KY.  UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...EARLY-DAY MCS HAS PROGRESSED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SRN OH
VALLEY REGION.  TRAILING THIS LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN SEEMINGLY WEAKER FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
EVEN SO...STRONG BULK SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY HAVE INCREASED THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR...ONE
TORNADIC STORM HAS EVOLVED OVER WRN KY...GRAVES COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MATURE WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.  IF ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS THIS REGION AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED.

..DARROW/HART.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37348709 37038637 36248678 36448943 37278943 37348709
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