[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072232
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF
KENTUCKY...AND A SMALL PART OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...

VALID 072232Z - 080030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW
145.  A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

DISCUSSION...A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND FAR EASTERN MISSOURI OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN/NEAR THE STL METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTHEAST.  THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
30-45 KNOT DEEP SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /AROUND 1000
J/KG MUCAPE/ WILL SUSTAIN THESE STORMS AS THEY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AT AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE WATCH AREA.  AT THIS PACE...THE
STORMS SHOULD REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TOWARD 23-00Z.

DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...ANOTHER SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS
IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION IN THIS
COMPLEX...WEAKER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A
HIGHER DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES WILL BE
MONITORED...AND A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARD 23-00Z.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39199134 39449118 39849078 39939018 39908969 39908916
            39688831 39488755 39258663 39068583 38818506 38558441
            38268406 37798382 37368376 36998383 36768411 36618443
            36618504 36748608 36878703 36968778 37238865 37578952
            37909029 38149074 38569111 38939135 39199134
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