[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Mar 31 22:12:30 CDT 2016


ACUS11 KWNS 010311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010311
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-010415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL GA...CNTRL/ERN AL...SERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72...73...

VALID 010311Z - 010415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 72...73...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TRANSIENT MESOCYCLONES SHOULD POSE A LOW-PROBABILITY
TORNADO/WIND RISK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN MCS EVOLVES FROM
PARTS OF AL/FAR SERN TN INTO WRN GA.

DISCUSSION...A MESSY CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE HAS BECOME PREDOMINANT
WITH AN MCS GRADUALLY SHIFTING E FROM THE TN VALLEY. AREA VWP DATA
HAVE SAMPLED STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS BUT INCREASINGLY VEERED
FLOW /SWLYS/ AS WELL. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH SHOULD STILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO TRANSIENT MESOCYCLONES.
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S OR GREATER...ROUGHLY
BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY THE WRN ATLANTA METRO TO MACON AREA AS OF
03Z...A BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN PRESENT. IT APPEARS THIS MAY
BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY E-CNTRL AL/W-CNTRL GA GIVEN A
COMPARATIVELY RICHER FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FARTHER N ALONG THE
TN/AL/GA BORDER...THE ABUNDANT OVERTURNING ALONG WITH A PINCHED-OFF
SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY
WANE.

..GRAMS.. 04/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35118621 35408573 35498526 35308454 34818439 34288462
            33628425 33038353 32478332 32038361 31978425 31958510
            32038604 32118665 32308718 32458719 32878679 33048639
            33088562 33408561 34018610 34368630 35118621
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