[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Jun 21 15:26:41 CDT 2016

ACUS11 KWNS 212026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212026
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...KENTUCKY...NRN TN...SRN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...

VALID 212026Z - 212200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES...BUT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES MAY HAVE PEAKED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  INTENSITIES MAY HAVE
ALREADY GENERALLY PEAKED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS LIMITED.  LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...IS EXPECTED.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEWEST
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY
COULD STILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE PEAK
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW AND SHEAR BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT
ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATED IN THE
MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT BY 22-23Z APPEAR
SUPPORTED BY LATEST TRENDS.

..KERR.. 06/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   36488909 37338817 37648705 38058535 38358416 38418281
            38558190 38088086 37198092 36678287 36158484 35608591
            36058746 36038883 36488909
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