[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151705
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE
TN...SERN MO...FAR NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151705Z - 151830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
A WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM SRN IND SWWD INTO
SERN MO NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF
KY AND MIDDLE TN...DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY
MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND
WITH CONTINUED FILTERED SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL HEATING...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR MAINTAINING
STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AREA VWP DATA NOTES A
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS
AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...SPREADING ESEWD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL KY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE ESRL AND NCEP HRRR SUGGEST
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 18Z.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38528761 38738686 39128558 39038496 38768462 37918527
            36798661 35198811 35058874 35078985 35159042 35629056
            36379020 36978997 37938842 38528761
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